It’s Cheltenham week and the runners and riders are ready. The same is true in Westminster because there is a race on to get Brexit sorted. Tomorrow is a “crunch day” (about the 100th such day in the past couple of years). Politicians will have to make a decision as to where we go next.
The bookies have their favourites for Cheltenham and this morning they have announced their expectations for Westminster too. It turns out that Mrs May’s deal only has an 18% chance of success according to the betting.
So, given that almost everyone expects her to fail to get her deal through, the politicians have a few options still available. One of those is to accept the legal default position which is “no deal”. However, later in the week, there will be a vote on that and the bookies reckon the vote will succeed in abolishing the option of “no-deal”.
That means there will be no “deal” and no “no deal”. (Stick with me…!)
Then there comes a vote on extending the deadline. But that requires unanimous agreement by the other 27 EU countries. And even though there have been some warm words from Europe, the odds are they will not agree to it.
Hence, this week the betting is that Parliament will vote to extend Article 50, sending Mrs May back to Brussels to ask for an extension. That will be rejected and Mrs May will, once again, return empty-handed.
So that leaves us with no “deal”, no “no deal” and no “extension”.
By that time there will only five working days before the deadline, during which over 50 items of legislation have to be worked on.
It’s time to put your money on the revocation of Article 50. The odds on that today are 37/5. Put in £100 today and you’ll get £740 back on March 29th to help you celebrate.